Persistent effect of temperature on GDP identified from lower frequency temperature variability

Abstract It is well established that temperature variability affects a range of outcomes relevant to human welfare, including health, emotion and mood, productivity across number economic sectors. However, critical still unresolved empirical question whether variation has long-lasting effect on and, therefore, damages compound over time in response long-lived changes expected with climate change. Several studies have identified relationship between gross domestic product (GDP), but evidence as the persistence these effects weak. This paper presents novel approach isolate persistent component output using lower frequency variation. The are heterogeneous countries collectively, three different GDP datasets, we find effects, implying determinants growth, not just productivity. This, turn, means aggregate change may be far larger more uncertain than currently represented integrated assessment models used calculate social cost carbon.